Republicans have every reason to believe in a majority recovery in the House of Representatives and in a tiebreaker in the division of seats with Democrats in the Senate in the November legislative elections, when they will be voted on 35 of the 100 seats in the upper house and all 435 in the lower house.
Historically, the party of the incumbent president usually does poorly in the midterm elections: according to a survey by The Hill newspaper, since 1946, the party of the current ruler has lost seats in the Chamber in the great most of these elections (with only two exceptions) and the Senate won more seats in only four opportunities.
The approval of Democratic President Joe Biden is only 33%, lower than at any time during the term of predecessor Donald Trump (2017-2021), largely due to the inflation, the highest in the last 40 years.
This means that the Will Republicans Have a Landslide in November? Not necessarily. Gazeta do Povo lists some of the points that may hinder the American opposition at the polls.
Problematic candidates
Analysts consider that inexperienced and/or involved candidates in controversies can make it difficult for Republicans to win, especially in the Senate.
Former football player Herschel Walker, who will seek a Senate seat from the state of Georgia, has his image eroded by personal scandals, such as revealing that he had three publicly unrecognized children and having lied about having worked as a police officer.
In Pennsylvania, candidate of Turkish descent Mehmet Oz was accused in the primaries of “connections” with the government from Turkey and not having ties to the state he intends to represent in the Senate (he lives in New Jersey).
Flags down
A poll A recent report released by the New York Times showed that traditional flags of the Republican Party are at the low end of concerns among the electorate. American: immigration, crime and education were cited as the most important by only 4% of respondents.
According to the survey, the topics that have aroused the most interest at the moment are abortion, gun control and democracy, mentioned by 30% of respondents to the survey. Among voters who cited these issues, 66% said they intend to vote for Democratic candidates and only 66 % in Republicans.
Mobilization around abortion
One of these great themes highlighted, abortion, should have great influence in the November legislative elections, due to the Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn federal jurisprudence in Roe v. Wade, of 1973, which removed the limits for American states to legislate on the subject.
Since then, states governed by republicans have applied laws that restrict or prohibit abortion.
Democratic politicians, starting with President Joe Biden, have urged supporters to turn out to vote, so that the pro-abortion party can secure legislative majorities at the federal level and in the states.
In an interview with Newsweek, Bernard Tamas, associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University, said that progressive outrage over the Supreme Court’s decision could cause Democratic voters to attend more ballot boxes.
“Mid-term elections are strongly influenced by turnout. Anger stimulates attendance, and Republicans were the most irritated group until the Supreme Court’s decision was announced,” he said.
To Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira, professor of economics and international relations at Fundação Armando Alvares Hairstyle (FAAP), Democrats can use the abortion decision to mobilize the black electorate (which historically favors party candidates: in 2020, 92% of black voters voted for Biden) and the share of the Latino electorate that supports the party.
“If these voters take into account the Democratic rhetoric that these elections are crucial for the topics that interest them, the discourse of tying the abortion issue to the beginning of a series of measures that can also affect racial minorities, it may not necessarily be a republican defeat, but a less comfortable victory than expected today”, he highlighted. , in an interview with Gazeta do Povo.
Redistribution of districts
As he This year’s midterm elections will be the first with the new division of electoral districts, based on the US Census of 2020.
Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira said that, despite from the legal disputes over the so-called gerrymandering (alleged manipulation of districts to benefit a certain side) denounced by Democrats, Biden’s party can also reap fruits with redistricting.
“As we have a growing non-white population in the United States, we may have a greater number of districts with a majority or a significant number of non-whites and these voters can decide in favor of the Democrats”, pondered Vieira.
“In Florida, the Republicans gained advantage with the proposed redistricting, but, for example, in Nevada and New Mexico, the Democrats have moved forward,” he added.
