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World Bank projects war will cause Ukraine's GDP to shrink 45.1% this year

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Homem observa prédio residencial bombardeado em Kharkiv, no leste da Ucrânia

Man observes bombed residential building in Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine

| Photo: EFE/EPA/VASILIY ZHLOBSKY

The World Bank released this Sunday () a report that points out that Ukraine’s GDP is expected to shrink 40, 1% in 2022 due to the effects of the invasion launched by Russia at the end of February. On the other hand, the aggressor country will also suffer a great retraction due to the sanctions imposed by the West and allies.

The report indicates that the results of the Ukrainian economy will depend on the duration and intensity of the war, but that issues such as mass emigration and infrastructure destruction “should reverberate beyond the short-term collapse in domestic demand and exports,” “with destruction of productive capacity, damage to arable land, and a diminished supply of labor – especially if refugees are slow to return or choose live permanently outside Ukraine”.

In the case of Russia, the estimated contraction for 2022 it’s from 11, 2%, as sanctions applied to the country “triggered trade, financial and confidence”.

The World Bank also projected effects on the global economy as a whole. “A protracted conflict will likely further increase political uncertainty, amplify existing tensions in global supply chains and fragment global trade and investment networks,” the institution warned.

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