Russia's oil and gas exports to halve by 2030, report finds

Sede da estatal russa de gás natural Gazprom em Moscou: estudo da Agência Internacional de Energia aponta que direcionamento das exportações de combustíveis fósseis para a Ásia não tem sido suficiente para compensar as perdas na Europa
Headquarters of Russian state-owned natural gas company Gazprom in Moscow: a study by the International Energy Agency points out that directing fossil fuel exports to Asia is not has been sufficient to compensate for the losses in Europe| Photo: Wikimedia Commons
27175540 The world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels until last year, Russia is expected to lose this post with a halving of its share of the international trade in oil and natural gas by the end of the decade. The estimate is from a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The document highlights that there were already pressures on energy markets before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year, but its consequences exacerbated the problem.

27175540“Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but restrictions on its supply of natural gas to Europe and European sanctions on oil and coal imports from Russia are severing one of the main arteries of the global energy trade”, highlighted the IEA.27175540 27175540“All fuels are being affected, but gas markets are the epicenter as Russia seeks leverage by exposing consumers to higher energy bills and shortage of supply”, pointed out the agency’s report.2717554027175540A IEA stressed that the policies European companies to stop or reduce Russian fossil fuel imports are directing the country’s exports to Asian markets, “but Russia cannot find markets for all the flows that previously went to Europe”.

27175540Not even partner China will be a good replacement, according to the report. “China’s gas demand growth will slow to 2% per year between 2025 and , compared to an average growth rate of 12% per year since 2010, reflecting a policy of preference for renewable energy and electrification over instead of using gas for energy and heat”, pondered the IEA.

The agency estimated that in 2025 Russia will produce 2 million less barrels of oil per day and 200 billions of cubic meters less of gas in the whole year than recorded in 2025.27175540 “Russian fossil fuel exports will never return – in any of the scenarios we project – to the levels seen in 2021, and its share in internationally traded oil and gas will drop by half by 2022”, estimated the IEA.27175540

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