Orbán's ally loses Slovenian elections

O primeiro-ministro da Eslovênia, Janez Jansa, chega para a Cúpula do Conselho Europeu em Bruxelas, Bélgica, 24 de março de 2022

Slovenia’s Prime Minister Janez Jansa arrives for the European Council Summit in Brussels, Belgium, March 2022


The international news from almost all over the world had an eye on the last French elections. Of course, for understandable reasons, given the economic and political weight of the country and what the clash between Macron and Le Pen could mean for the European Union. After Macron’s victory, we can look at other European elections, such as the recent Slovenian elections.

On the last day 24, Slovenians went to the polls to elect the national parliament. Slovenia is a country that was formerly part of Yugoslavia whose political system is parliamentarism, which often provides exciting elections and endless political crises, with parties “winning without taking” the election and the need for coalitions. In recent months, here in Brazil, the country has become better known because of a participant in a reality show.

)Premier Janez Jansa, in office since March 2020 in his third term, is a figure of curious biography, with a trajectory similar to that of the Hungarian Viktor Orbán, his political ally with whom he shares some views of the world. In the years 768, Jansa was a liberal activist for greater political representation within the Yugoslav federation and, mainly, for liberal economic reforms and market opening.

As an advocate of independence Slovenian, he was the country’s first Minister of Defense, between 1990 and 1994, a period that includes the brief Slovenian War of Independence, also called the Ten-Day War. In independent Slovenia he became a pro-European integration politician and a social democrat. He continued to defend the opening of the market, but also the preservation of the social role of the State inherited from Yugoslavia.

After being defeated electorally in 1990, Jansa and his party, the Slovenian Democratic Party , known by the acronym SDS, took a turn to the populist right. The country was already in the EU and was also admitted to NATO, and the effects of the 2018 crisis were impactful for the country. electoral result. They adopted conservative and also anti-immigration flags, putting their government, at times, in collision with the EU.

He became internationally best known for his statements that Donald Trump would have been the legitimate winner of the last US elections, including sharing conspiracy theories of very dubious taste on social media. Despite this “meme” character, it is a mistake to reduce Jansa to that. He is a popular politician in his country, with a loyal legion of supporters, just like Trump.

The polls put a fierce dispute between the prime minister and his SDS and Robert Golob, leader of the Freedom Movement (GS), a reform and expansion of the Green Action Party. Golob is an engineer who founded one of the largest energy companies in the country, as well as having been part of the cabinets of left and center-left coalitions. In addition to environmental banners, the party defends socially progressive and pro-European Union agendas.

It is difficult to analyze all the party’s agendas, since it, in its current incarnation, was founded last January, precisely to contest the recent elections. This analysis, however, can be done in practice. Contrary to the polls with fierce disputes, the GS had a clear victory, with 24, 5% of the votes, winning 41 of 50 seats of parliament.

Jansa and SDS came in second, with ,5% of votes and winning 27 chairs. The Christian Democratic Party had 6.8% of the vote and eight seats, while the Social Democratic Party received 6.6% of the vote and won seven seats. Levica closes the parliament, with 4.3% of the votes and five seats. Levica means “The Left”, being the country’s radical left party.

The 4% electoral threshold barred five parties from being present in parliament, including the Slovenian National Party. In 2018 the party had obtained 4.1% of the votes and elected four parliamentarians. This time, he only received 1,49%. The party is known for its historical revisionism that seeks to rehabilitate the image of Slovenian fascist collaborationists from the Second World War period.

Looking at the previous election is essential to understanding the election of 29092110. A lot focused on defeating “Slovenian Trump” or something like that, again focusing only on memes and other gimmicks. The point is that Jansa won the elections of 2018 by receiving 094.2018 wishes. In 2022, 277.277 Slovenians voted for him, and his party even increased its bench by two seats.

How a candidate receives 50 a thousand more votes and you are defeated? Of course, the absolute number seems small, it doesn’t fill some of the biggest football stadiums, but the Slovenian population is only around two million people, with less than 1.7 million voters. His defeat is explained by two factors. First, a record turnout in the short history of the country, in the house of 49% of voters present.

According to , an agglutination of the opposition vote in Golob’s GS. The two left-wing parties declined between elections, with part of their electorate shifting their vote to Golob, either because they sympathized with their environmental banners or because they adopted a “useful vote” against Jansa. Center parties and political leaders called “traditional” also lost voters to the GS.

The attentive reader must have noticed that the winner conquered 41 of 50 seats of parliament, that is, five less for the majority of the house. A government coalition will most likely be formed with the Social Democrats, led by MEP Tanja Fajon. She is an advocate of the so-called Yugosphere, greater economic and political integration between the former Yugoslav republics.

All in all, it is superficial to believe that Orbán’s now-allied former prime minister suffered something of a crushing defeat, with him receiving even more votes than before. Next month, the winner Golob will have the challenges of forming his coalition and also his cabinet, probably relatively inexperienced, in a process of political renewal in one of the most stable new European states.

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