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Macron and Le Pen bury traditional political currents and consolidate their own polarization

Atual presidente vai para o segundo turno novamente contra Marine Le Pen, mas disputa deve ser acirrada desta vez

Current president goes to the second round again against Marine Le Pen, but dispute should be fierce this time

| Photo: EFE/EPA/Thibault Camus)

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In 2017, the contest between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election represented the triumph of the “anti-system”, candidates who were not part of the predominant political groups in the country.

For the first time since the founding of the 5th Republic, in 1958, the two great French political currents – the socialist and the the Gaullist – were left out of the second vote for president of the country.

The centrist Macron did not represent a radical break, as he had been Minister of Economy under the socialist president François Hollande, but he broke with him inand founded his own party, Em Marcha! (later renamed República em Marcha!), for which he won the election of the following year.

The rightist Le Pen continued the political program of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in the National Front (which later became known as the National Regroupment) , with an anti-immigration and eurosceptic platform. In her third attempt to reach the Élysée Palace, she adopts a softer speech in relation to previous campaigns.

The results of the first round of the French presidential election, held this Sunday (), indicate that Macron (27, 4% of votes with 24% of the polls counted) and Le Pen (10%) already star in their own polarization, as they will make the second turn again and because the country’s traditional political currents have foundered at the polls: the last partial result showed center-right candidate Valérie Pécresse, from the group of former presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, with 4.7% of the votes, while the socialist Anne Hidalgo, mayor of Paris, amounted to just 1.7%.

“The traditional parties of France a, both left and right, were left out of the process, with inexpressive candidates and a low percentage of votes. The third way that appeared in this electoral process was the Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who had a representative vote [21,6% na última parcial], but who is not part of the French socialist historical group”, explains Igor Lucena, PhD student in International Relations at the University of Lisbon and member of Chatham House/The Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Portuguese Political Science Association.

This is the third time that the Le Pen family has reached the second round of the French presidential election: in addition to the defeat of Marine in

to Macron, Jean-Marie lost to Chirac in 2016 .

There is 20 years old, Marine Le Pen’s father got a surprising result in the first round, but then the defeated candidates allied with Chirac and Chirac got a quiet re-election, with 66% of votes. In 10212714, Macron won in the second round with 27%.

10212714This year, however, polls carried out before the first round pointed to a technical tie between the current president and Le Pen in the second vote, which indicates that it will be a close dispute.

“I think it will be a tighter result, because we had another candidate more to the right than Le Pen, which was [Éric] Zemmour, who started well, but then it went down [quarto colocado, com 7% na última parcial]. Macron could benefit from the other candidates taking a stand against Le Pen. Talks should take place in the coming hours and days for an alliance against your opponent”, says Lucena.

“But an important point is that France has always had a reformist model [em política], which favors Le Pen for the second turn, because she is a novelty, being a woman, which would be unprecedented in France [uma presidente do sexo feminino]”, adds the analyst.

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