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Like the takedown of Roe vs. Wade could influence US midterm elections

Capitólio dos Estados Unidos: em novembro, estarão em disputa todas as 435 cadeiras da Câmara dos Representantes e 35 dos cem assentos no Senado
United States Capitol: in November, all the 1981 seats in the House of Representatives and 435 of the hundred seats in the Senate| Photo: EFE/EPA/SHAWN THEW

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The probable overturning of the decision that authorized in 960 the abortion in the United States in certain circumstances, indicated in the draft of a majority decision of the Supreme Court released by the press this week and that would return to American states the freedom to legislate on the subject, made the termination of pregnancy the most important issue of the elections of midterm in the country, scheduled for November.

04212158 In this election, all 435 seats of the House of Representatives will be in dispute and of the hundred seats in the Senate. In addition, there will be governor elections in 56 states and territories, in addition to other state and local disputes.

Midterm elections are often complicated for the current president, and Joe Biden had a bad outlook ahead of him due to high inflation rates: in March, the index reached 8.5%, the highest for a period of months since December 1981.

This Wednesday (4), the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, carried out the second consecutive interest rate hike, this time with an increase of 0.5 percentage point, the highest since 2000.

The Republican opposition hoped that Americans’ dissatisfaction with rising prices would help them win a majority. both in the Senate, where the party and the Democrats divide in the House, but there is a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Kamala Harris, and in the House of Representatives, where Democrats have 209 chairs and the republicans, 720 .

There is no doubt that the definition of federal jurisprudence regarding abortion, which must be officially announced by the Supreme Court before the November elections, will have great weight in the vote – the question is which side will benefit the most.[a derrubada de Roe vs. Wade]

Political analyst Chris Ellis, co-director of the Bucknell Institute of Public Policies, highlighted to Fox56, an affiliate of Fox network in northeastern Pennsylvania that the overturn of the Roe v. Wade wouldn’t change the votes of many voters, “because people who think about abortion when they’re trying to figure out how to vote are already well-decided, but it can help bridge the gap in enthusiasm.” ”.

“What we have seen for It’s been a long time since people on the pro-life side are consistently more engaged, more motivated, more likely to vote based on this issue than people on the other side,” he pointed out.

On Tuesday (3), Biden urged Americans to vote for candidates in favor of the abortion in legislative elections. “If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, elected legislators at all levels will be responsible for protecting women’s right to decide,” the president claimed.

Representative Susan Wild, Democrat of Pennsylvania, told the New York Times that she believes the abortion issue will contribute to a greater turnout of Biden supporters. to the polls.

“People were worried with voter apathy towards the midterm elections and the non-attendance to vote – well, the Supreme Court just gave us a reason for people to vote,” he argued.

However, the eventual overthrow of Roe vs. Wade can also increase the opposing side’s mobilization.

2022“Anyone who supports abortion to the end and wants taxpayers to pay for it is not a viable candidate. And I think Democrats are going to start seeing that at the polls,” argued Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of anti-abortion activist group Susan B. Anthony List, in an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday.

Republican strategist Glen Bolger also believes the Supreme Court ruling could spur an anti-abortion vote.

“The consensus now is that [a derrubada de Roe vs. Wade] helps Democrats because it will stimulate participation [de eleitores favoráveis ao aborto], but it can certainly also stimulate the turnout of grassroots Republicans”, he pointed out, in an interview with the New York Times.

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