In the most recent column here in our space, we mentioned that next November will be marked by the vast amount of important elections that will take place around the world. We deal with national elections in Denmark and Israel, but a legislative election will also be very important. On November 8, US voters will elect 35 Senators and 212 Representatives. The renewal of the US Congress could impact not only the country’s citizens, but also the war in Ukraine.
The so-called midterm elections renew a part of the Senate, composed of one hundred representatives, and the entire House of Representatives, the deputies of the country. Today, the US Senate is split in half, with 50 seats under Democratic control and 50 under Republican control. This means a tenuous democratic dominance, since the “minerva vote” is exercised by the presidency of the house, cumulative with the vice presidency of the Executive. Today, Democrat Kamala Harris.
Of the 35 seats that will be contested, 14 are currently held by Democrats and 17 are currently held by Republicans. Most projections speculate a tight scenario, in which the tie will continue, with Pennsylvania as a key dispute. Again, the tie minimally favors the Democrats. In the Chamber, however, everything indicates that a Republican majority will be formed. Today, of the 220 seats in the house, 220 are with Democrats, 212 are with Republicans and three are vacant. .
The Democrats need some big twist or new fact to bounce back. In the worst-case scenario for Joe Biden, Republicans may even control both houses of Congress. In other words, they could block some of the government’s current agendas, such as increasing the debt ceiling, health reforms, an environmental package and even federal investments in infrastructure. Mainly, US support for Ukrainians against Russian invasion may suffer setbacks.
US$ 60 billion
In direct military assistance alone, the US government has already provided the equivalent of US$ 17 billions to the Ukrainians. Adding direct and indirect military assistance, such as training, and non-military assistance, the account amounts to US$ 60 billions. That’s a huge amount of money for any benchmark. The size of the amount, plus the lack of prospect of an end to the conflict, make this aid questionable.
For example, Kevin McCarthy, House Republican leader, has already criticized what he calls “free blank check” to Ukrainians and pointed out that US citizens do not want a recession because of Ukraine and deserve accountability. An official account of the Conservative Political Action Committee, known by its acronym CPAC, asked when the “providing of gifts” to Ukrainians would end. After negative repercussions, the post was taken off the air and an apology was published.
Another negative repercussion was a comment made by Republican Representative Jim Banks, that the arsenals of the armed forces of the US would be being exhausted to send ammunition to Ukraine, and that, supposedly, even US security would be at risk. In addition, there is a position among those closest to Donald Trump that a negotiated solution is necessary, and not an escalation of the conflict, with the shipment of armaments.
It is important to emphasize and analyze the main point of complaint from Republican politicians. Often the focus is restricted to alleged connections between Trump and Putin, or an alleged Russian infiltration within the Republican Party. The issue, however, revolves around money and fiscal balance, an important banner for the party. Again, this is an amount of money that cannot be underestimated, even within a pachydermic budget like the US government’s.
Fractures in both parties
Furthermore, even if the Republican Party controls both houses of Congress, it is unlikely that military aid to Ukraine will simply cease. He would likely be diminished or undergo some sort of scrutiny. Most US citizens support military aid to Ukrainians, as do several prominent figures in the Republican Party. Still, it should be remembered that all votes against the military assistance packages came from Republican politicians.
Finally, it is also important to mention that the position of assisting the Ukrainians is no longer unanimous within the Party Democrat. Recently, a letter was published, signed by deputies from the most left wing of the party, calling for a negotiated end to the conflict and stating that the US is getting directly involved in the war, using taxpayer money. An argument very similar to that of some Republicans. The signatories withdrew shortly afterwards, due to the negative repercussions.
The scenario in Ukraine means that even a decrease in US military aid can influence the conflict. Perhaps we can expect a big package of military aid before the elections. Therefore, the election will be closely watched from Kyiv and also from Moscow. Along with the European winter, the price of natural gas and the consequent inflation for European citizens are some factors that could dampen military support for the Ukrainians. Putin might even count on it.