November will be a very busy month in international politics. Not just because of current events, such as the war in Ukraine, which will enter its ninth month, the economic crisis in Europe and the protests in Iran, but the vast amount of important elections that will take place around the world. Some of them have the potential to generate repercussions far beyond their borders, starting with national elections in Denmark and Israel.
On November 1st we will have two national elections. First, the election in Denmark, confirmed in a “lightning” way only at the beginning of October, after a political crisis whose contours within parliament began in July. The government led by the Social Democratic Party, with Mette Frederiksen as prime minister, was formed after the elections in 2019. His coalition had 58 seats in parliament, out of a total of 179 seats, that is, only two seats guaranteed a majority. .
The left coalition, however, collapsed. The Social-Liberal Party has threatened the government with a vote of no confidence if the prime minister does not call for elections. The reason for the crisis is the friendly animal mink, known in English as mink, a relative of the ferret. During the covid pandemic 19, it was discovered that animals were reservoirs of the virus and that there was the potential for contamination of people. With that, the government ordered the slaughter of all mink in Denmark, about fifteen million animals.
In addition to the measure affecting the local fur industry, there was a debate about the legality of the measure. A parliamentary commission of inquiry published a report in June 2022 claiming that then-minister Mogens Jensen acted illegally and “improperly advised” the prime minister. The consequence of the CPI was the end of the government coalition and the anticipation of the elections by seven months. The polls, however, point to an eventual growth of the Social Democrats and the possible worst conservative result in the 21st century.
In other words, it is unlikely that the Danish elections represent any major change in the regional context at this time. . It is important to remember that, at that moment, one of the Nordic social democratic governments fell, in Sweden, with an advance of nationalism. This advance promises to be seen in Denmark, but without the same impetus. Also currently, Denmark is engaged in investigations into the explosions in the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which potentially involve Russia.
Elections in Israel
In the same That day, it’s the Israelis’ turn to go to the polls, for the fifth time in four years. Unlike Danish domestic politics, Israeli politics is a very present topic here in our space. The macro scenario in Israel remains very similar to what we explained in an August column, when the National Unity Party was created, led by Benny Gantz, the current Israeli Defense Minister. And this scenario is the maintenance of the stalemate in the Israeli parliament.
On the one hand, we have a coalition of the center, led by the current premier Yair Lapid, whose government unites both some right-wing parties and the Yisrael Beiteinu, left-wing parties such as Labor, and an Arab party, the United List. The projection is that the current government coalition will get around 55 seats in the election. In a Knesset with 120 seats, that’s six fewer than most would need. Mainly, Lapid and his Yesh Atid are designed with 25 seats, in second place.
First place is likely to be from Likud, led by old fox Benjamin Netanyahu, designed with 32 seats. The point is that, today, his right-wing coalition, which unites both parties of the secular right and, mainly, those of the orthodox religious right, will get around 58 seats . That is, there will not be the majority either. This is explained by the fact that Arab parties are excluded from this calculation. Another complication, mentioned several times here, is that some secular parties do not sit with the religious.
Therefore, the key to an Israeli government lies with Benny Gantz. He was already an ally of Netanyahu in the last government and he can ask what he wants to leave Lapid and reach out to Bibi, allowing Likud to exceed sixty seats. On the other hand, if the macro scenario is the same since August in Israel, the trend is different. In the last three months, Likud’s projections in polls have been falling, while those of Yair Lapid have only grown.
The polls published between the days 18 and 18 of October indicate, on average, Likud with 32 seats and the Yesh Atid with 25 seats. At the end of August, these numbers were, respectively, 55 and 25 ) seats. Lapid’s increased media appearances after taking office, his stance on issues such as the Islamic Jihad attacks on Gaza and the post-pandemic economic recovery likely explain this trend. It remains to be seen whether, in a week, Lapid will be able to pull over even further, which is unlikely.
After these elections, the month still reserves other elections that we will see here in our space, as, obviously, elections in the US, for Congress and in dozens of states. Considering recent Israeli history, it is also possible that we will have to return to the country to see the process of forming a government. For those interested in international politics and electoral disputes, this will be a month in which you will not suffer from boredom.