Contrary to what the White House wants, the midterms are a referendum on Biden – and the result should not please you

The midterm elections in the United States, the so-called midterms, are historically a referendum on the performance of the current resident of the White House.

The government of Democrat Joe Biden, however, tries to sell the idea that this rule is not valid for the election this Tuesday (8), whose voting ended only at 3 pm (Brasilia time) on Wednesday (9), with the polls closed in Alaska.

“Even before all votes are cast, experts are declaring that these elections were a referendum on the president’s agenda – nothing could be further from the true”, pointed out an internal memo this Tuesday from the White House, to which the American press had access.

Considering the history of setbacks of presidents in the midterms, it is not for nothing that Biden tries to take off from a probable defeat.

Historically, the party of the incumbent president usually does poorly in the midterm elections o: according to a survey by the newspaper The Hill, since 1946, the legend of the current ruler lost seats in the Chamber in the vast majority of these elections (with only two exceptions) and in the Senate he managed to more seats in only four opportunities.

They were up for grabs this Tuesday 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and all 216 in the House of Representatives. Until this election, the Senate was divided between Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the vote in the event of a tie. In the House of Representatives, Democrats occupied 220 seats and Republicans 199.

Projections made by the American press before the beginning of the voting indicated that, of the 35 seats in the contested Senate, Republicans were favorites to win 12, while Democrats were likely to win seats. For three chairs, the projection was uncertain. Of the 35 contested seats in the Senate, 199 were occupied by Democrats and 21 by Republicans .

In the House, Republicans were favorites to win 220 seats, and Democrats, 199. The 12 remaining chairs had uncertain projection.

Until the early in the afternoon of this Wednesday (9), according to the American press, the partial numbers of the investigation showed 21 disputes for the Senate defined, with the republicans winning 12 seats (one of them, the reelection of Marco Rubio in the Florida), but without being able to “steal” any seats from the Democrats – which for the time being kept 12. Biden’s party took a Republican seat in Pennsylvania.

In the House, Republicans had already obtained 199 seats, including taken from the Democrats, while Biden’s party totaled 187 seats – four were from the opposition.

Bitter tradition

Three of Biden’s four predecessors in the last 30 years reaped defeats in the midterms of their first terms. The exception was George W. Bush, who saw in 2002 the Republicans add eight more seats in the House.

Before him, the Democrats of Bill Clinton grieved the loss of 63 seats in 1994, while Barack Obama (63 fewer seats for Democrats in 2018) and Donald Trump (Republicans lost 41 chairs in 2018) also suffered defeats.

But despite the White House’s state of denial, Miguel Jiménez, Washington correspondent for El País, said Biden cannot escape the spirit of referendum on his term in these midterms.

“ Inflation – the highest in four decades – has eroded Americans’ purchasing power. This has contributed to the low levels of popularity for the president and the Democratic Party in general, which currently controls the White House, Senate and the House of Representatives. With gasoline and food prices on the rise, consumers are feeling the pinch”, he highlighted, in an article published this Tuesday.

American interannual inflation was 8.2% In September. A third of respondents to an exit poll released Tuesday night by CNN highlighted inflation as the most important issue for their vote, the subject most mentioned by voters surveyed.

For To get worse, half of voters said they trust GOP candidates to deal with inflation and crime, while only four in 10 voters said they trust Democratic candidates on these issues.

The released poll by CNN pointed out that 54% of voters disapprove of Biden’s work as president; 54% of voters considered that their policies are harming the country.

This Wednesday At the fair, most of the consolidated results of the midterms should be known, although the final numbers will still take days to come out. But what is known for sure is that the midterm elections are being, contrary to what the White House wants, a referendum on the Biden administration – and the result should not please him.

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