Today, November 8th, the midterm elections take place in the USA. Our readers know this and here in this column we are going to look at the possible scenarios for the election results, especially in relation to the US Congress, the federal legislature. Some elements related to the country’s next presidential election also emerge. At the moment, everything indicates that Joe Biden will repeat the fate of US presidents
The last US president who spent a full term with his party’s dominance in Congress was Democrat Jimmy Carter, president from 1977 to January 1981. In the two biennia of his term, Democrats had a majority in both the Senate and the House. It didn’t help much, since Carter, in the search for reelection, had to run for his party’s primaries and, in the elections, suffered one of the biggest defeats in the country’s history, against Republican Ronald Reagan.
From the beginning of the Reagan administration until today, there were 22 biennia. In only six of them did the president’s party control both houses of Congress. Once with Bill Clinton, twice with George W. Bush, in different terms, and in the first two years of Obama, Trump and Biden. The case that the Republicans managed to keep the majority with Bush is due specifically to the War on Terror and the idea that it needed broad legislative support, freeing up funds for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Of the last five US presidents, four began their term with a majority in both houses and lost at least one of them after the first biennium. Clinton even ruled for six years with minorities in both houses. This “fate” of US presidents seems to be maintained with Joe Biden, since everything indicates that, if the Democrats today have a majority in both houses, they will lose at least one of them.
Chamber
In the Chamber, which has been fully renovated, the 435 seats are at stake. Of those, 220 are with the Democrats, 212 are with the Republicans, and three are vacant. Of the vacant seats, two were held by Democrats. One by Charlie Crist, who resigned to run for governor of Florida, and one by Ted Deutch, who resigned to take on another role. The third seat was occupied by Republican Jackie Walorski, who died in a car accident.
Today, the main platforms that provide an aggregate of electoral polls point to a margin of 225 to 230 seats for Republicans. This is explained by the natural erosion of the party in executive power, reflected in the recent “fate” of presidents. In Biden’s case, however, the wear and tear goes beyond what would be expected. Some polls put the disapproval of his government in the house of 60%.
The main reason for this is the rampant inflation in the country, which reaches historic milestones. The US economy is on the brink of a recession. Of course, this is not the only explanation, with a myriad of other influential factors, from the dynamics of each district to the war in Ukraine, as already mentioned here in our space, through topics such as pregnancy abortion.
Senate
In the Senate, the situation is tighter. According to the same polls, today, the trend is to maintain the tie, which favors the Democrats, since the “minerva vote” is exercised by the presidency of the house, cumulative with the vice presidency of the Executive. Today, Democrat Kamala Harris. Of the 22 seats that will be contested, fourteen are currently held by Democrats and twenty-one are currently held by Republicans.
Pennsylvania will be a key dispute for control of the house. If the Republicans get 51 seats, then the alarm should sound in the White House, as Joe Biden will have two very difficult years ahead of him. Some agendas dreamed up by Republicans, such as some criminal investigations, however, should only remain in the dream, since, for example, an impeachment of the president requires two-thirds of the house.
If Biden needs to worry, it’s not all bad news for your party. Democrats are likely to exit the election ruling more states than they entered. Of the fifty states in the US, 28 are governed by Republicans and 36 by Democrats. Of these fifty, 36 will elect new governors, twenty Republicans and sixteen Democrats. In most cases, the ruling party should continue.
State governments
Some of these races, like Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, are pretty tight according to research. Two Republican-run states, Maryland and Massachusetts, have Democratic candidates leading the polls. Of course, this is just an indication and it is necessary to wait for the final result. In total, there are six elections in states ruled by republicans and in which Biden won the presidential race in 2020.
An important aspect of the state elections is the possible source of signals for the next presidential race, especially in the current federal opposition. Republican eyes will be on Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis is likely to be re-elected. He gains traction as a potential candidate in 2024, a name that would unite both traditional Republicans and “Trumpist” Republicans. In this sense, Donald Trump himself stated that he will make a statement on the next day 15 in November, probably announcing his candidacy.
If at the end of the electoral count the Democrats still have the Senate and manage to manage the defeat in the House, Biden should not go to sleep so sad. Even more so if his party manages to become one or another state government. On the other hand, if the Democrats lose both houses of Congress, the situation will be complicated for the president and his “governability”. The life of the windowpane is not easy as it seems.
