According to experts, this column only contains anecdotes

Auxílio Brasil começou a ser pago em 17 de novembro em substituição ao Bolsa Família
Auxílio Brasil started to be paid in 17 of November to replace Bolsa Família

| Photo: Reproduction

Today I wanted to share the idea I had about the disastrous unintended consequences that Auxílio Brasil will bring to the Northeast. I could look up spreadsheets and data on the sites

of the government or NGOs to support my claims. I would probably find worksheets for and against my idea; but since this previous process is not in the spotlight, I would be free to choose the most convenient worksheets for my hypothesis. There, that’s it: full of

numbers, I could pose as expert and announce the coming catastrophe , entitled to many headlines. Anyone who disagreed was at best a simpleton

; at worst, an abominable negationist who needs to be held by the STF. In any case, fact checkers would tweak the same tables as me to prove anything.

But since I don’t want to be an expert and I’m able to promote the Generalist Pride and Anecdote Movement, I’m not going to do any of that. I’m going to tell you how I arrived at the hypothesis stated at the beginning of the text. He was talking to an application driver in Curitiba.

Presence Northeastern in Curitiba

I stayed a short time in Curitiba and I had lunch there for two days. On the first day, I went looking for vines at a recommended restaurant. Vina is the most boring thing in the world; it’s just a big-diameter sausage. On the second day, I decided to use the experience acquired in Rio Grande do Sul and enter a restaurant with an Italian name, certain that there would be a buffet full of delicious food and lots of polenta. That’s right, but one thing struck me: while in Porto Alegre I had noticed a certain dominance of Italian settlers in the food sector, with the interior of the restaurants full of white workers, in Curitiba the waiters were all brown. I could see that the nasal vowels speak just like me. (Instead of the open vowels, to take the northeastern origin, notice the anasaling. If you are from the Northeast region, say ãmigo and bãnãna instead of á-migo and bá-nana.)

Perhaps Curitiba has a much more heated economy than Porto Alegre and this makes it a center of attraction for working people from the Northeast. Porto Alegre, on the other hand, would be supplied by surplus rural labor, thus explaining the contingent of waiters from rural European colonies.

When it comes to calling an application driver for the bus station, another young brown man appears with slanted eyes common in Indian descendants. I expect it to be northeast of an area without much historical presence of sugarcane – because where there is sugarcane there is black.

It turns out that he was an Alagoan from Maceió who had moved with the whole family for over ten years and loves Curitiba. He loved my idea of ​​leaving Porto Alegre and going up through the capitals until arriving in Rio de Janeiro and is thinking of imitating it, but I wanted to do something else first: set foot in Maceió for the first time since he emigrated. Plan to do this with the family, buying a travel package split several times.

The lazy cousins, children of the equally lazy aunt, however, will make this dream come true before he does, and in a reckless way: they will leave Curitiba and go back to live in Maceió. The aunt lives on pension for having children and does not work. The children are also two unemployed and living on assistance. According to the application driver, if you manage to become unemployed in Curitiba, it is because you have a problem. If they couldn’t get a job in Curitiba, how would they find it in Maceió? I argued that if they live on help and really don’t want to work, going back to Maceió makes perfect sense, because the cost of living is lower. The driver thought and nodded. R$1.200,11 they are nothing in Curitiba, but on the outskirts of Maceió they live.

Unfortunately, DataBruna does not have a register of self-declared vagabonds from the Northeast to know if the cause is an exception or a general trend. I can wait sitting down for technocracy to move to raise studies that run the risk of concluding that perhaps the aid, so good for gaining votes, is fostering a migration of convinced idlers.

Arriving in the Northeast, the idler will not fill out a DataBruna form consisting of two options: ( ) I came to get along with the help , playing dominoes. () I’m going to get on the tram and pick up a bunch of women selling drugs, because it’s easier to be a rich stud here.

Thought independent of bureaucracy

I don’t have numbers, nor can I have numbers, as I’m just a writer with a computer and a few books. I don’t own a research institute, nor a bureaucrat, nor do I receive money from CAPES. And this cannot imply that I – and almost the entire Brazilian population – have to sit and wait for the authorities and their “experts” to think for us.

In the particular case, I take the liberty of thinking that this reflects a general trend because the driver’s cousin’s decision is perfectly rational. It is unreasonable to imagine that only


has discovered that the amount of aid pays more in the Northeast than in the South and Southeast. It is not about taking a case and generalizing, but about reasoning based on what I see with my own eyes. When people stop thinking about what they see to believe in authority, it doesn’t come to a good thing.

My editor doesn’t believe me

Then you can ask about the falsifiability. How can I say I’m wrong if I am? In this particular case, following the Northeast. Since the pandemic, there has been an outbreak of violence in Salvador. Before, I thought it was because of the release of the prisoners; today I already think that the return of idlers can be a factor that helps to explain it. If I am correct, there will be a disproportionate increase in violence in the Northeast compared to the Brazilian population. It’s not much, but that’s what I can think of. If I were a bureaucrat, I could implement practical measures based on my hypotheses and test them.

I don’t ask anyone to read my hypotheses passively, prostrate in front of the screen, and believe it continuously. I’m not an authority. I just hope to raise some hares and give people something to think about and discuss.

However, sometimes I write some things that can be verified easily. I say that there is a kind of middle class university cracolândia in Florianópolis, Avenida Hercílio Luz, which can be seen on weekends from around seven at night. Anyone from there may be used to it; for me, it was a culture shock both the existence of a middle class cracolândia and the willingness of my friends to mingle with that kind of people.

By “middle class cracolândia” I mean a tense environment in which people are altered, with a degraded physical appearance, mixed with drug dealers. And I think that the fact that the wealthy lend themselves to this is something worthy of raising moral reflections.

I’m not saying that in Bahia there are no middle and upper class drug addicts; what matters is that in my culture they disguise, while in Florianópolis they are normal.

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